Will the Strait of Hormuz have any reported shipping incidents involving merchant vessels by September 23, 2026 at 12:00 PM UTC?
This market predicts whether any shipping incidents involving merchant vessels are reported in the Strait of Hormuz by the specified deadline, a key flashpoint in the Iran conflict. Resolution uses major wire services that track incidents and maritime disruptions.
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Count any objectively described incident in the Strait of Hormuz involving merchant vessels (e.g., attack, boarding, missile/drone strike, interception, damage, sinking, or similar maritime incident) that is reported by the resolution sources with a publication time on or before 2026-09-23T12:00:16Z. Incidents reported outside the Strait of Hormuz or involving only military vessels without any merchant-vessel involvement do not count. Outcome is YES if at least one merchant-vessel incident in the Strait of Hormuz is reported by any resolution source with a timestamp on or before 2026-09-23T12:00:16Z. Otherwise, OUTCOME is NO.
This market view is a legacy grouping of related sources. It does not state causal links or determine resolution.
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1 article counted as 1 authority contribution.
1 articles · 1 trusted signals