Will the United States and Iran agree to a ceasefire or other mutual restraint deal before August 6, 2026 at 6:11 PM UTC?
This market asks whether the US and Iran reach an explicit ceasefire or mutual restraint agreement before 6 Aug 2026, a key step for ending the roughly five-month conflict and exchange of missile barrages. The outcome can be verified via official statements and major wire reports.
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The agreement must be an explicit ceasefire or mutual restraint deal announced publicly (e.g., joint statement, official government statement, or formal communique) by US and Iranian authorities, and it must clearly indicate restraint of hostilities (including termination/suspension of attacks or barrages). YES if a publicly announced US-Iran ceasefire or mutual restraint agreement is reported by Reuters and/or AP and includes clear terms of suspension/cessation of hostilities/missile barrages before 2026-08-06T18:11:00Z. NO if no such explicit ceasefire or mutual restraint agreement is publicly announced by both sides by that time.
This market view is a legacy grouping of related sources. It does not state causal links or determine resolution.
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