Will the U.S. launch strikes on Iranian targets on or after 2026-08-04?
This market predicts whether the United States conducts strikes on Iranian targets on or after 2026-08-04, following a reported foiled missile attack on American forces. The event is resolvable from official statements and major news reporting that can be checked independently.
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Public evidence and related article signals for this market.
Using reporting and/or official statements from authoritative public sources, the strike event must involve U.S. military action targeting Iran or Iranian-linked targets, and it must occur on or after 2026-08-04 (UTC). If multiple time-stamped strike reports exist, the earliest strike time on or after 2026-08-04 determines the YES/NO determination. Outcome is YES if Reuters and/or AP documents U.S. strikes on Iranian (or Iranian-linked) targets with a reported time on or after 2026-08-04 UTC. Outcome is NO if no such U.S. strike on Iranian targets is reported by Reuters and/or AP during the period after 2026-08-04 up to and including 2026-08-11 UTC, and no official U.S. government statement contradicts that.
This market view is a legacy grouping of related sources. It does not state causal links or determine resolution.
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